Predict the fights.
Own the fighters.
A prediction market and fighter exchange for humanoid robot combat. Back bout outcomes, trade season-long shares in fighters, and settle every position against live machine telemetry, onchain and open, in $DUEL on Base.
Table of Contents
Overview
Mech Arena is a dual-purpose product built on top of an emerging sport: humanoid robot combat. It is not a league and does not stage fights. It is the engagement layer that sits above the leagues, giving fans two ways to take a position on the machines.
First, prediction markets, where users back the outcome of a bout, its winner, its method, its round, or one of the fast micro-markets that open and close inside a single exchange. Second, the fighter exchange, where users buy and sell shares that track a fighter's performance across an entire season, holding a roster the way one might hold a stock portfolio.
Both products settle the same way. Positions resolve against official fight logs and machine telemetry through the Damage Oracle, and pay out in $DUEL on the Base blockchain. Users remain non-custodial throughout, holding their own wallet rather than trusting the platform to custody funds.
Mech Arena positions itself as native to the sport, not a competitor to it. The leagues stage the fights; Mech Arena is the identity and habit layer that turns a spectator into a participant with a standing position on every fighter.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets
Back the bouts on winner, method, and round. Then live in-fight micro-markets that open and settle in seconds — next knockdown, will it reboot, round-two malfunction. Probabilities priced in cents, the way a real exchange quotes them.
Prediction markets are the short-horizon side of the product. A user takes a position on a specific, verifiable outcome of a bout and is paid if that outcome resolves true.
2.1 Bout markets
For each scheduled fight the protocol opens a set of markets on the discrete outcomes of that bout:
- Winner, which machine is standing, controlling, or ahead at the final bell.
- Method, how the bout ends: knockout, system failure, immobilization, or decision.
- Round, the interval in which a decisive result occurs.
These markets open when the card is announced and close at the opening bell, resolving once the fight log is final.
2.2 In-fight micro-markets
Micro-markets are short-duration markets that open and settle inside a single fight, often within the 90-second exchanges the machines fight in. A micro-market poses a question that resolves in seconds, the next takedown, the next power-loss event, who lands the higher impact spike, and settles against live telemetry before the exchange is over.
Micro-markets are the highest-throughput surface in the product. They generate continuous resolution events during a fight, which is what turns passive viewing into active, moment-to-moment participation.
2.3 Cent pricing
Prediction market prices are quoted in cents, where the price of a position is read directly as its implied probability. A market at 62¢ implies a 62% chance the outcome resolves true, and pays out to $1.00 in $DUEL-denominated value if it does.
Fighter Exchange
Fighter Exchange
Buy shares that track a fighter across the whole season, not a single bout. Prices move on results, hype, and roster moves, and the book stays open all season, so you can build a roster and size positions by conviction.
The exchange is the long-horizon side of the product. Instead of betting on one bout and being done, a user buys shares in a fighter and holds a position across the whole season, closer to a stock portfolio than a wager.
3.1 Season-long shares
Each fighter has tradable shares whose price tracks that fighter's performance over the season. Shares are open to trade all season long, so a holder can build a roster of fighters, size positions by conviction, and exit at any time rather than waiting for a single fight to resolve.
3.2 What moves a price
A fighter's share price is repriced continuously against three inputs:
Share prices can fall as well as rise. A fighter share is exposure to a season of physical-machine performance, not a protected position. A losing streak, a hardware failure, or fading attention can each drive a price down.
The Damage Oracle
Damage Oracle
Live telemetry decides every market. Positions settle against impact force, joint stress, and power draw captured straight from the machines, written onchain, with results and raw data left open for anyone to verify.
The Damage Oracle is the trust and verification layer that makes both products settle without human judgment. Every market, bout markets, micro-markets, and the exchange, resolves against it. The claim is simple: live telemetry decides every market, onchain and open.
4.1 Telemetry inputs
Markets settle against measured data captured directly from the machines rather than a referee's opinion. The core signals:
| Signal | What it measures |
|---|---|
| Impact force | The force of strikes and collisions landed, used to score exchanges and decide impact-based micro-markets. |
| Joint stress | Mechanical load across the machine's actuators, a leading indicator of damage, immobilization, and system failure. |
| Power draw | Live current and battery state, which flags power-loss events and the fade that ends a fight late. |
4.2 Onchain resolution
The telemetry is written onchain and markets resolve against it programmatically. This removes human judgment from settlement: results are decided by the recorded data, and both the results and the underlying data remain publicly verifiable by any participant.
Onchain, open resolution is the differentiator. A structured fight log plus transparent dispute resolution means every settled position can be checked against the same public data, rather than trusting the platform's word.
The $DUEL Token
$DUEL is the settlement currency for the entire product. Prediction market payouts, exchange trades, and micro-market resolutions all settle in $DUEL on Base.
Users hold $DUEL in their own non-custodial wallet and connect it to open the app. The protocol never takes custody; positions and balances live at the wallet, and settlement moves $DUEL directly to the winner of a resolved market.
Supported wallets
Any of the standard EVM wallets can connect:
| Network | Currency | Wallets |
|---|---|---|
| Base (settlement) | $DUEL | Coinbase Wallet, WalletConnect, Rabby, Phantom, Rainbow, Trust, Ledger |
$DUEL is a settlement token for markets described as being for entertainment, with restricted availability by jurisdiction. It is not an investment instrument and participation may be unavailable where prohibited.
The Leagues
Mech Arena is built on top of independent robot-combat leagues. It settles against their fights but is not affiliated with or endorsed by them. Three leagues anchor the current roster.
| League | Format | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| REK | VR-piloted humanoid combat on Unitree G1 machines, based in San Francisco. | Positioned as the flagship US humanoid-fight league; 2025 debut reportedly sold 3,400 tickets into a 2,500-capacity venue. |
| UFB | Ultimate Fighting Bots: controller-piloted combat at San Francisco's Frontier Tower. | Machines fought at CES 2026 with New York Times coverage. |
| URKL | Ultimate Robot Knock-out Legend: fully autonomous combat in Shenzhen on the EngineAI T800 platform. | Reportedly features a $1.44M gold belt. |
Hardware and distribution stakeholders behind the sport include Unitree (G1 / H1), EngineAI (T800), and China Media Group for broadcast. Additional robot platforms in the roster's world include Boston Dynamics Atlas, Tesla Optimus, and Agility Robotics Digit.
Architecture
The product is a set of onchain markets and an offchain data pipeline that feeds them, connected by the Damage Oracle.
Risks
| Risk | Description | Mitigation Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle Telemetry integrity |
Settlement is only as trustworthy as the machine data behind it. | Onchain, publicly verifiable logs; structured dispute resolution. |
| Hardware Machine failure |
A fighter's value can collapse on a mechanical failure, not just a loss. | Explicit exposure messaging; telemetry-based pricing. |
| Token $DUEL volatility |
Settlement token value can move independently of positions. | Clear denomination; disclosure of settlement mechanics. |
| Legal Jurisdictional |
Prediction markets face restricted availability and regulatory scrutiny. | Jurisdiction gating; entertainment framing; legal review. |